Transition Risk Indicator (TRI)

The Transition Risk Indicator (TRI) is a newspaper-based measure of climate transition risk in the United States. Positive (negative) values indicate higher (lower) transition risk. The index rises around major climate policy events and declines following climate policy rollbacks. It is available at both daily and monthly frequencies from January 2014 onward. See the companion paper for details.

viewof freq  = Inputs.radio(new Map([["Monthly", "monthly"], ["Daily", "daily"]]),
                            {value: "monthly"})
viewof debut = Inputs.date({value: d3.min(dates)})
viewof fin   = Inputs.date({value: d3.max(dates)})

data  = transpose(freq === "daily" ? tri_daily : tri_monthly)
dates = data.map(d => new Date(d.Date))
last  = data[data.length - 1]

filtered = data.filter(d => {
  const t = new Date(d.Date);
  return t >= debut && t <= fin;
})

dl = {
  const a = DOM.download(
    () => new Blob([d3.csvFormat(filtered)], {type: "text/csv"}),
    `TRI_${freq}_${d3.timeFormat("%Y-%m-%d")(debut)}_${d3.timeFormat("%Y-%m-%d")(fin)}.csv`,
    "CSV"
  );
  const btn = a.querySelector("button");
  btn.innerHTML = `<i class="bi bi-download"></i>&nbsp; CSV (${filtered.length} obs.)`;
  return a;
}

htl.html`<div class="tri-toolbar">
  <div class="tri-block"><span class="tri-label">Frequency:</span>${viewof freq}</div>
  <div class="tri-block">${viewof debut}<span class="tri-label">to</span>${viewof fin}</div>
  <div class="tri-block tri-dl">${dl}</div>
</div>`

Triangles mark selected policy events (green: risk-increasing momentum; red: risk-decreasing). Last updated: June 2025.

Methodology

The index is constructed from climate-related articles published by six of the most widely read online newspapers among U.S. readers (as of May 2026) that are available through MediaCloud (Daily Mail, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, Politico, The Guardian, Washington Post).

Articles are screened and scored by a large language model (GPT-5-mini) along five dimensions: climate relevance, risk type, risk direction, risk intensity, and risk horizon.

Daily article-level scores are aggregated into a daily index, and the monthly index is obtained by averaging the daily series. Full methodological details are provided in the companion paper below.

Citation & License

The Transition Risk Indicator (TRI) dataset is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license. The license permits copying, sharing, and adapting the dataset, provided appropriate attribution is given. If you use the TRI in academic work, please cite the companion paper below.

@unpublished{toussaint2026climaterisk,
  title    = {Are Transition and Physical Climate Risks Priced? Evidence from Directional News-Based Measures},
  author   = {Toussaint, Clément},
  year     = {2026},
  note     = {SSRN Working Paper},
  url      = {https://ssrn.com/abstract=6431199}
}